Tuesday 19 June 2012

The EUR is accelerating its rebound against the USD after a rumor about the EFSF



The EUR accelerated its rebound Tuesday after rumors of a deal the Europeans to buy a portion of the debt of EUR area countries in difficulty and curb the risk of contagion.

Around 6:15 p.m. GMT, the eur bought 1.2713 usd against 1.2571 usd at 2100 GMT Monday.

The eur rose against the yen also, to 100.40 yen against 99.45 yen late Monday.

For its part, the usd retreated against the Japanese currency to 78.97 yen against 79.11 yen yesterday.
The single currency was boosted by an article in the Guardian newspaper that European countries have agreed on the sidelines of the G20 which takes place in Mexico, to use the resources of the relief fund of the eur area (EFSF, which will be replaced early July by the European Stability Mechanism MES) to acquire part of the debt of close to bankruptcy.

The newspaper, citing the G20 leaders, "an announcement could be made in the coming days".
This measure, which Germany said there is still fiercely opposed ten days, "is aimed primarily Spain and Italy", the fourth and fifth European economies, noted Sebastien Galy, Societe Generale.

"It would be a huge leverage," he added, noting that this amounted to build community bonds. 

"The market is depressed, (this unconfirmed) gives him some drugs and allows him to calm down,"

This rumor allowed traders to ignore the moral plunge of German investors in June as well as soaring borrowing rates in Spain.

Spain managed to raise 3.040 billion eur to 12 and 18 months Tuesday, an amount slightly above the target (2 to 3 billion eur), but had to concede interest rates up sharply .

"Such a result makes it virtually certain that without major changes in the Monetary Union, Spain is going to need a full bailout," said Kathleen Brooks.

In addition, the market was optimistic about the chances of seeing the U.S. Federal Reserve announced Wednesday monetary easing measures. "An estimated 75% chance of the Fed decide to see a measure of monetary easing," said Mr. Galy.

Such measures, designed to support a recovery that is showing signs of weakness, usually result injections of liquidity into the economy, diluting the value of the usd and making it less attractive to speculative investors.

Around 6:15 p.m. GMT, the British pound retreated against the eur at 80.73 pence per eur, and left again on the rise against the greenback at 1.5746 usd.

The Swiss franc remained stable against the eur at 1.2008 Swiss francs to the eur and rose against the greenback at 0.9445 Swiss francs to the usd.

The Chinese yuan ended at 6.3547 yuan against one usd for 6.3575 yuan on Monday.

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